Closing deals in the sauna

Published: Wed, 05/14/25

Updated: Sat, 05/17/25

May 14, 2025

TOGETHER WITH

Welcome back to The Quota, where we spend the week foraging for memes, articles, and statistics, then throw everything into a cauldron and let it simmer for 2 days and 3 nights before serving it to you on a strange-looking plate. In this week’s issue, we’ll look at how a new study uses AI to measure persuasiveness in sales, plus the usual hors d'oeuvres. Enjoy!

NUMBER OF THE WEEK

3.1

Buyers change their problem statement an average of 3.1 times during complex purchases

Source: Emblaze

SALES ROUNDUP

Here’s what’s happening in the sales world this week:

A recent book traces the rise (and rise) of multi-level-marketing companies, with a focus on both their ubiquity (nearly 7.7% of all Americans have been involved in these businesses at some point in their lives) as well as their questionable practices. For more context: a 2011 study of 350 multilevel marketing businesses found that 99 percent of participants lost money. You can read more about the book here.
Where will AI replace sales, and where will it not? An excellent SaaStr article recently covered this question. Transactional reps, mediocre customer success, and average sellers at SMBs are most at risk. The least: complex enterprise sales, strategic relationship builders, and outside-the-box thinkers. You can read the full article and watch the video here.

FEATURE

New research from Yale measures persuasiveness in salespeople with stunning accuracy

What makes someone truly persuasive in sales? While most of us can recognize effective sales techniques when we see them, precisely defining these skills has remained elusive—until now. Recent groundbreaking research from the Yale School of Management has used machine learning to decode the elements of persuasion that drive sales success.

A recent study published by Yale Professor K. Sudhir and colleagues from the University of Texas at Dallas and the University of Wisconsin-Madison tackled this challenge with a novel approach. Rather than relying on self-reporting or surveys, they analyzed video recordings of mock sales pitches where college students participated in roleplays as part of the National Collegiate Sales Competition.

From Art to Science: Measuring Persuasion

"Previous research on persuasion has shown mixed results, possibly because it lacked truly objective data," explains Sudhir, the James L. Frank '32 Professor of Private Enterprise and Management. The team saw an opportunity to conduct a granular analysis of what actually makes a sales pitch effective by examining language patterns, vocal inflections, and body movements.

Using advanced AI tools, the researchers broke down persuasive communication into measurable components. They tracked how interviewees allocated words across topics like greetings, product information, and pricing. They measured speaking styles by analyzing how closely candidates' speech matched traits like collaborativeness, confidence, and politeness. They also assessed how well salespeople mirrored the communication style of their interviewer.

For body language analysis, the team used OpenPose technology to convert video frames into data points tracking 24 body parts. This allowed them to quantify subtle physical cues like hand gesture frequency and head movement that signal confidence or nervousness.

Humans & AI: Better Together

The results were fascinating. When trained on these multimodal features, their AI model could predict effective salespeople with 40% better accuracy than random selection - impressive, but not perfect. However, combining AI analysis with human judgment created a hybrid approach that improved prediction accuracy to 67% over the baseline.

"The AI is more consistent, but humans detect things the AI currently misses," notes Sudhir. "The AI-human hybrid is superior to either working alone." The study also revealed that while content matters most in determining persuasiveness, interactive conversation skills and body language play significant supporting roles.

Democratizing Sales Talent Acquisition

Beyond the scientific findings, this research has practical implications for hiring in sales roles. Traditional résumés provide limited differentiation between entry-level candidates, and in-person campus recruiting is both expensive and restricts the talent pool. AI-assisted screening could allow companies to consider a much wider range of candidates.

"We don't think about the hidden costs of not using AI," Sudhir points out. "Without AI tools, companies typically only recruit from top schools. With this technology, they could expand their search significantly."

The researchers designed their model to be fully explainable and auditable - crucial features as the EU and various U.S. jurisdictions classify AI applications in hiring as high-risk. This transparency helps ensure the system doesn't inadvertently discriminate against candidates.

Beyond Hiring: The Future of Persuasion Training

Looking ahead, Sudhir envisions applications beyond hiring. The technology could potentially help individuals improve their persuasion skills through targeted feedback. "We could train AI to convert videos into meaningful analysis and then help people get feedback on their communication," he suggests.

While the Yale study focuses specifically on sales contexts, the implications extend to anyone who needs to be persuasive in their professional life. Whether you're pitching an idea to colleagues, seeking funding for a project, or simply trying to be more effective in day-to-day interactions, understanding the science of persuasion offers valuable insights for improved communication.

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MEME OF THE WEEK

Source: Instagram -- Sales Humor

QUIZ

Which former automaker CEO was smuggled out of Japan in an audio equipment box?

A. Henry Ford
B. John DeLorean
C. Carlos Ghosn
D. Akio Toyoda

SALES FAILS

Each week, we bring you the most cringe-worthy sales moments from across the web. To submit your sales fail story for consideration, click here. (Don't worry, you'll remain completely anonymous).

I sell fitness equipment to gyms. Last year, I was close to landing an account with a former pro bodybuilder who was opening his second location. After several promising meetings, he invited me to meet him at his flagship gym to "finalize details." When I arrived, he was just finishing a workout. I started discussing equipment specs, but he cut me off and suggested we go to the sauna. He joked that “that's where the deals happen."

I'd only been in a sauna a few times in my life, but I wanted to get the deal done. I changed in the locker room and met him there wearing some workout shorts. It was extremely hot at first, but I got in the zone as we chatted about financing terms, warranties, and maintenance schedules. After about 15 minutes or so, I started to feel lightheaded. The next thing I remember, the guy was pouring water on my head and shaking me. He said I had passed out for about 30 seconds and he had helped me out of the sauna and into the locker room like I was an injured football player. He laid me down on a bench and elevated my legs with some towels and gave me two big cups of water. I laid there for about 10 minutes before I had the strength to get up and get changed. Afterwards, I met him back in the gym, apologized for the fuss and thanked him. He laughed and said he thought for a minute there he was going to have to dispose of my body.

I called him the next week and he informed me he was going with another vendor that he thought was a better fit. He didn't give me much more information than that. I'm fairly certain it's because he thought I was weak because I couldn't last 20 minutes in a sauna.

Anonymous Location withheld

GRAPH OF THE WEEK

Source: LinkedIn Poll -- May 2025

WORTH A PEEK

Sales reps making $200k or more per year, what are you doing? We stole this question from a recent Reddit thread (and we’ll do it again), but if you want to see the 600+ responses, you can check out the conversation here.

ASK THE QUOTA

Want to submit a question and be featured in our advice column? Click here. (Don't worry, you'll remain completely anonymous).

Dear Quota Team,

I've spent the last 8 years selling payroll services. I'm consistently at quota, and frankly, I can do this job in my sleep. I've been approached about a sales role in medical devices—a field I have zero experience in, but with significantly higher commission potential and more complex sales cycles. The compensation package could potentially double my income if I perform well, but I'd be starting from scratch learning both the product and industry. My current role is stable and comfortable, but I'm starting to feel stagnant and like I’m “coasting.” Is it crazy to walk away from a role where I'm established to pursue something with bigger upside but substantial risk?

Deciding in Washington

Dear Deciding,

The decision ultimately boils down to what you value more—security, or the growth from new challenges. If you genuinely feel stagnant, that restlessness will rarely resolve itself without action. Of course, any transition will require humbling yourself to become a student again, working harder than you have in years, and accepting a temporary dip in performance—BUT, you could always go back to payroll if it doesn't work out. Sometimes, the biggest career risk is taking no risk at all, particularly when you know you’re ready to grow again. Go for it!

Quiz Answer: C. Carlos Ghosn, former CEO of Nissan, was smuggled out of Japan in an audio equipment box (you can read the source article here)

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Today's email was written by Ken Kupchik, Erica Furgiuele, Steve Rado, and Emily Hill.

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